Talking Taiwan Security at the Hudson Institute

by Craig Hooper on June 30, 2017

The indefatigable Seth Cropsey over at Hudson Institute for American Seapower had me stop by to chat about Taiwan security issues. Despite the heat, it was a good time. Here’s the talk:

My fellow panelists and I earned Hudson a little bit of coverage from Seapower Magazine. My takeaway quote there was this:

Craig Hooper, senior analyst at Gryphon Scientific, said while he doesn’t believe the threat China presents to Taiwan is “insurmountable,” it remains one of Taiwan’s biggest concerns.

“In the maritime domain, the People’s Liberation Army Navy [PLAN] threat to Taiwan is very real,” Hooper said. “But with a disciplined strategy-minded application of even modest resources, the PLAN threat to Taiwan is manageable. Submarines and other undersea vehicles may be a viable part of a comprehensive solution.”

Outside of my usual “don’t freak out about China, but manage it” message, I hit a few other points. The first was to encourage Taiwan to consider just how the emergence of precious capital ships (and the capital ship defense mission) might change the nature of the Chinese surface Navy. The other point was to encourage Taiwan to mull the impending requirement that China–in any Taiwan contingency in the not-so-distant future–deploy a lot of stuff forward to deter an array of compensatory strikes at an increasingly vulnerable array of isolated Chinese interests/facilities.

These are interesting strategic questions that, frankly, just haven’t gotten sufficient analysis.

The Way Forward For Taiwan’s Subs:

Regarding Taiwan’s subs, I encouraged the country to consider indigenous solutions–though I agree with my other panelists–rehabbing their two existing Dutch-built Zwaardvis Class subs first makes sense. And then, if the Netherlands is willing to transfer their two retied Zwaardvis subs from storage in Malaysia (if they still even exist!), Taiwan would be on the road to reconstituting a viable “higher-end” submarine capability.

That scenario….could happen (though I can’t see a not-fully mothballed sub surviving for years inoperative in the Malaysian heat, but, well, a panelist insisted they’re still viable). And given that Mainland China seems to be tolerating the fact that a Dutch firm (CSBC) is currently refurbishing Taiwan’s existing submarines, maybe a transfer of the two subs from Malaysia (again, if they still exist!) could happen without sparking too much of a diplomatic temper tantrum. To me, a path towards a fleet of four old-but-still-pretty-capable subs seems to be the most viable and timely route for Taiwan to take.

But, outside of the Dutch submarines, my sense is that Taiwan should get about the business of building some simple subs of their own (if North Korea can do it, so can Taiwan!), and set to work immediately on raising the costs China must pay to threaten the Taiwanese coast and their harbor approaches.

Waiting for the United States to offer much of anything (and to get it all approved, funded, designed, built and transferred) would take decades–and, frankly, given the high risk any advanced tech transferred to Taiwan will leak to Mainland China, Taiwan can’t expect anything fancy from the U.S. (or anybody else) anyway.

I also encouraged the Taiwanese to focus their efforts on anti-surface warfare–on sinking ships.

In any Taiwan scenario, the undersea environment will be extraordinarily confusing, with boats from many nations operating in the area. Let maritime patrol aircraft attack known hostile undersea targets, and leave the subs to focus on either threatening major surface assets, or locating, identifying and killing surface targets under challenging electromagnetic conditions. Given the lack of a viable indigenous submarine-focused industrial base in Taiwan, the effort needed to develop integrated anti-submarine capabilities would be a waste of resources right now. Subs sink ships, and as I have said before, simple “flip phone” subs are sufficient even in today’s fancy, do-anything “Iphone sub” world.

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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

TWN Reformer April 3, 2018 at 10:50 am

NORTH KOREA?….. lol….. YOU are JOKING… RIGHT?….. THEY got CRAP in my book….. TAIWAN wants SUBMARINE TEARDROP HULL, SONAR, and SO Much MORE from USA MILITARY SUPPLIERS and also EUROPEAN MILITARY SUPPLIERS as well

TAIWAN needs following:

8 AIP 3000T Diesel-Electric SUBS
{similar to TYPE 214, GOTLAND-CLASS, SCORPENE-CLASS, and SORYU-CLASS}

8 AAW 11000T AEGIS with AN/SPY-6 AMDR DESTROYERS (128 VLS)
[96 ESSM; 64 SM-2; 24 SM-3; 16 VL-ASROC]
{similar to KDX-III, ATAGO-CLASS, and ARLEIGH BURKE-CLASS}

24 ASW 6000T FRIGATES (48 VLS)
[32 ESSM; 24 SM-2 ER; 16 VL-ASROC]
{similar to F-100, TYPE-26, and FREMM}

64 ASW 3000T CORVETTES (16 VLS)
[16 ESSM; 4 SM-2 ER; 8 VL-ASROC]
{similar to FLOWER-CLASS, BAYNUNAH-CLASS, and HAMILTON-CLASS}

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TWN Reformer April 3, 2018 at 1:55 pm

SUBMARINES:

U 32 German Submarine – YouTube [TYPE 212/214]…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV5VDyBfIbA

HOW SWEDEN’S STEALTH SUBMARINES ‘SANK’ A U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER || WARTHOG 2017 – YouTube [GOTLAND-CLASS]…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeCvnt3YlkA

Scorpene SSK AIP Submarine – DCNS – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OugghHerWcE

JAPAN GOES BACK TO THE FUTURE WITH LITHIUM-ION BATTERY POWERED SUBMARINES || WARTHOG 2017 – YouTube [SORYU-CLASS]…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-RkrYwZFJo

silent voice in the dark said, ” Hope they dont use Samsung batteries, china can buy the batteries that came out of the exploding phones ”

SAFETY wasn’t IMPORTANT to A6M ZERO during WW2….. haha….. I guess JAPAN and ABE just like THEIR Youthful SAILORS to BURN ALIVE with LITHIUM-ION BATTERY now a day….. hehe….. if USA can get away with LITTLE CRAPPY SHIP and with F-35….. I guess JAPAN can have Their COOL JAPAN for CRONIES of ABE….. but also in form of SUBMARINE PROGRAMME as well

DESTROYERS:

ROKS Sejong The Great (DDG-991): This Is The Pillar Of Korean Navy – YouTube [KDX-III]…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJdplEQ_2Jg

Hobart Class Destroyer Air Warfare Capability Royal Australian Navy – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwUvIDyQACE

Raytheon – Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyers Air & Missile Defense Radar Combat Simulation [720p] – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1-_4tfWR4c

BuShi Do said, ” It’s quite hilarious how the submarine surfaced so it could get hit by a missile. Talk about a overly simplified and retarded video depicting naval encounters ”

THEY made LURE CALL of SIREN to get those MEN in SUBMARINES to SURFACE….. lol….. WORKS On TURKEY Rather WELL

Cheney Spoof – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e4uD0NzK60

9LV – Command And Control – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5mbMcq2riI

FRIGATES:

BEST FRIGATE IN THE WORLD F-100, Hobart class – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtutOZCwbk

Type 26 frigate promo, Australia – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3r72KZrAP0

Leonardo – FREMM Multi-Mission Stealth Frigate Electronic & Weapon Systems Simulation [720p] – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOg5oaQdwi4

Thales naval radars at IndoDefence 2012 – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbQfCnEPZFs

CORVETTES:

Baynunah class corvette – UAE Navy – CMN Combattante BR71 – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNkT2Y85tQA

Hehe….. BAYNUNAH got ESSM for AIR TARGETS….. TAIWANESE ASW 3000T CORVETTES will put 57mm NAVAL GUN on OURS inspired by FLOWER-CLASS during WW2 but with HIGH ENDURANCE (6 to 8 WEEKS) of HAMILTON-CLASS and WEAPON SETUP of BAYNUNAH-CLASS….. mainly for SEA CONVOY GROUP ESCORT MISSION ensuring ENERGY SECURITY and TRADE ROUTES

BAE Systems Bofors 57mm Mk 3 Stealth Gun with 3P Ammunition – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rldn9Hvzih4

HELICOPTERS:

Danish Defence MH-60R Seahawk bad weather landing – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3A_noXLzuo

Lockheed Martin MH 60R Seahawk Multi Mission Helicopter 480p2 – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKeC1HNrZ0o

Ah-1 Cobra/Super Cobra Tribute – YouTube…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb55EWUIaIE

Reply

TWN Reformer April 7, 2018 at 7:34 am

OH….. TAIWANESE ARMY and MARINES already got HELICOPTERS like AH-1W and really WANT more LOCKHEED MARTIN MH-60R SEAHAWK (8 + 24 + 64 = 96) for FUTURE….. if NOT….. then AGUSTA WESTLAND AW159 WILDCAT….. I also like AW101 (EH101) MERLIN for ASW VERSION a lot as well….. IT seem WASTE OF MONEY for TAIWAN (TWN) to BUY on LOCKHEED MARTIN F-35B THE Flying BATHTUB….. CHENGDU J-20 is a JOKE in my book….. if CHINESE J-20 is SUCH a THREAT….. SELL to TAIWAN (TWN) with LOCKHEED MARTIN F-22 RAPTOR in the FUTURE

TAIWAN (TWN) do needs following USA ARM SALES for TAIWANESE AIR FORCE not F-35B nor F/A-18E/F:

66 F-15 2040C to replace MIRAGE 2000-5

66 F-16V to replace F-5

66 A-10C

TAIWAN (TWN) and SAR HELICOPTERS….. THEY should ALL be able to LAND on even SMALLEST ASW WARSHIPS in TAIWAN:

AGUSTA WESTLAND AW109 (A109) K2
AGUSTA WESTLAND AW101 (EH101) MERLIN for SAR VERSION

EUROCOPTER HH-65 DOLPHIN
EUROCOPTER EC225 SUPER PUMA

SIKORSKY HH-60 JAYHAWK
SIKORSKY S-92 SUPERHAWK

CATOBAR is superior than STOBAR and also than STOVL….. CATOBAR of USA NAVY also carried 80 JET FIGHTER AIRCRAFT…. I think that at least 40 JET FIGHTER AIRCRAFT are really needed to TAKE OUT on ANY ONE of AIR BASES on LAND….. ANYHOW….. I don’t think TAIWAN (TWN) needs AIRCRAFT CARRIERS nor LHDs….. and that means TAIWAN (TWN) don’t need F-35B and F/A-18E/F in reality….. HOWEVER….. PRO-CHINA PARASITES lived inside of TAIWAN such as CHINESE NATIONALISTS (ROC) and WAI SHENG REN or HUA REN (KMT) would want to secretly give STEALTH TECH and AMPHIBIOUS ASSAULT TECH from WEST to CHINA (PRC) and ZHONG GUO REN (CCP)….. I think TAIWAN (TWN) needs ARTICLE 9 just like JAPAN to keep TAIWAN (TWN) from WASTEFUL MILITARY SPENDING

Marcus Tullius Cicero said, ” The wise are instructed by reason, average minds by experience, the stupid by necessity and the brute by instinct. ”

OF COURSE….. TAIWAN would needs TAIWANESE SUBMARINES to SINK on CHINESE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS and CHINESE AMPHIBIOUS ASSAULT WARSHIPS invading TAIWAN….. HOWEVER….. I don’t think TAIWAN should be involved in SPRATLY ISLANDS and MILITARY ADVENTURISM at all….. but FOCUS on DOMESTIC Political REFORMS such as PRIVACY LAWS… NET NEUTRALITY… PRESS FREEDOM… JURY TRIAL WITH 12… ECONOMIC FREEDOM… OPEN List PR with MODIFIED Sainte-Lague METHOD using FIXED 4-Year TERM… and SO Much MORE

Marcus Tullius Cicero said, ” The precepts of the law are these: to live honestly, to injure no one, and to give everyone else his due. “

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